Predicting Results of a Match-Play Golf Tournament with Markov Chains

We introduce a Markov Chain model for predicting outcomes in golf match-play. The model uses individual players’ score probability distributions for each hole to estimate the probability of winning the match. The model is specific both to the individual participants and to the course on which the match is played. We use six years of PGA ShotLink data to determine individual player statistics and to estimate the required probability distributions. We compare the prediction of the model results in the 2010 Ryder Cup singles match-play (Day 3).